Aryna Sabalenka started the week with 1,046 ranking points ahead of Iga Swiatek and she will be in pole position at the WTA Finals to secure the Year-End No. 1 ranking.
Last Monday, the Belarusian replaced the Pole at the top spot after zero pointers for the missed WTA 500 tournaments were applied. This time, additional zero pointers were counted and also points earned from last year’s WTA Finals were dropped. And as a result, the 26-year-old will arrive in Riyadh with a significant ranking lead over the Pole.
For Sabalenka, this Monday marked her 10th week as the world No. 1. Last year, she reached the top spot after the US Open but reigned for only eight weeks until the end of the season-ending tournament.
“N1…. Let’s see for how long this time,” the three-time Grand Slam champion wrote on X after reclaiming the top spot.
Aryna Sabalenka© Wuhan Open/X – Fair Use
No. 1 scenarios between Sabalenka – Swiatek
While the Pole still has a shot at finishing the season as the top-ranked player in the game, it will be easier said than done since the Belarusian holds her own fate in her hands.
One of the first scenarios is Sabalenka winning all of her three group matches and instantly sealing the deal and not depending on anything else. Even winning a match or two in the Round Robin stage but reaching the final would be enough for the 26-year-old.
For Swiatek, the math is simple – she pretty much has to win all of her five matches but even that is not a guarantee. If the Pole ends on the losing side in one of her group matches, the Belarusian could seal the Year-End No. 1 with two Round Robin wins. In case the defending WTA Finals champion loses two matches, Sabalenka will need just one win in the group stage.
In case Swiatek goes undefeated and the Belarusian only wins two Round Robin matches and loses in the semifinal, that’s the scenario that would see the 23-year-old finish the season as the No. 1.
Iga Swiatek© Iga Swiatek/Instagram – Fair Use
Sabalenka received two stern warnings ahead of the WTA Finals
Now that this year’s US Open champion is also the new world No. 1, former Grand Slam semifinalist CoCo Vandeweghe warned the 26-year-old to expect to have a target on her back.
“It’s because she has the momentum. She’s coming off the US Open, she hasn’t really played much post-US Open. Where you see people playing that are trying to get some momentum back, I’m going to drop Iga in that list, I’m going to drop Jessie Pegula in that list – even though Jessie made the finals [of the US Open]. Because they have a sour taste in their mouth from a loss that they think maybe they shouldn’t have had. Aryna is the hunted and it’s also: what is she going to do with that big target on her back?” former world No. 9 Vandeweghe said on Tennis Channel’s Inside-In podcast.
“For so long it’s been Iga that’s had that big target on her back and everyone’s chasing Iga to take that No 1 ranking, to beat her on the biggest stages. Now, Sabalenka’s going to have that mantle, and what’s she going to be able to do with it? Can she hold onto that? Can she step up to that occasion?”
Also, Swiatek’s new coach Wim Fissette who will debut with the Pole at the WTA Finals – warned the Belarusian that he will have the 23-year-old prepared for their matches.
“Top players want to play big matches, that’s their main motivation. They usually don’t have problems with it, it makes them happy. How do I work? I have information, videos. I prepare my players, we discuss strengths and weaknesses, prepare tactically and draw conclusions. In the case of tennis players like Aryna Sabalenka or Elena Rybakina, you make an analysis and look for a way to beat them,” Fissette explained.
But while Swiatek was absent during the Asian swing, her biggest rival claimed that she was disappointed over not having her compete.
“I mean, I love having this competition and I love seeing her in the draw. Yeah, I love to, like, get to the finals and face her in the finals. It’s always great battles. I always enjoy fights against her. But, I mean, I hope she’ll figure out the coach situation and she’ll be back in the Finals in her best shape. Hopefully we can play against each other there in the Finals, yeah, put it into a fight for world No. 1. That’s ideally. I’m trying to focus on myself and make sure that I play my best tennis and make sure I still have this opportunity to become world No. 1 at the end of the year,” Sabalenka explained.