The Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of the most anticipated events on the PGA Tour, not only for its history, but also for the difficulty of its course. The Bay Hill Club & Lodge is an unforgiving course: thick rough, water hazards positioned in key points, very fast greens in Bermuda Grass and an often unpredictable wind. Only the most complete players, capable of combining precision from the tee, skill in approach shots and cold blood on the putting green, can aspire to victory.
Arnold Palmer Invitational, course
As always, the field is of the highest level, with many big names ready to challenge each other on a course that in recent seasons has rewarded aggressive but strategic players, capable of managing both power and precision in key moments.
Bay Hill is a Par 72 of 7,381 yards, one of the longest courses on the PGA Tour, but its real difficulty is not only in the distance. In 2024, the average fairway hit rate for players was just 58.9%, with many tee shots hitting the rough, making the second shot difficult. In addition, the Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage was only 59.3%, demonstrating how difficult it is to attack the greens even from a good position.
The tournament will certainly be played around the greens. In fact, the Strokes Gained: Approach for the winners of the last five years is +1.35 strokes gained per round, which shows how important it is to know how to recover. For those who want to win, golden hands are needed.
Scottie Scheffler arrives at Bay Hill as the world number 1, with a game that seems perfect for dominating on this course. In 2024, he won the tournament, finishing at -14, thanks to an extraordinary performance in approach shots (Greens in Regulation at 73%) and in distance control (Strokes Gained: Approach of +2.1 per round), numbers that make him the main candidate for victory. The only weak point? As always, putting. Scheffler fell below the tour average in Putts per Green in Regulation, and if he doesn’t improve this statistic, the tournament could slip out of his hands.
Rory McIlroy is one of the most unpredictable players in the field. At Bay Hill, he already won in 2018, but in recent editions he has been inconsistent: he has finished in the top 10 in five of the last six editions, but without ever managing to impose himself again. His strong point remains the Drive, with an average distance of 320 yards and a Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee of +1.1 per round. If he can improve his second-shot accuracy (2024 GIR at 65%), he will be a threat to everyone.
If there is one player worth watching, it is Xander Schauffele. His all-round game makes him a natural fit for Bay Hill: he is in the top five on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Total, with a perfect combination of tee shots, approaches and putting. Last year he finished third, averaging 1.8 strokes gained per round on approach shots. Unlike some of the top players, Schauffele does not need to take too many risks off the tee, because he compensates with a surgical iron. This could be the week to get back to winning ways.
If the wind picks up, Shane Lowry could be a threat to everyone. The Irishman has a great ability to adapt to difficult conditions and is one of the best at “scrambling”, with a 65% success rate on recovery shots around the greens. He finished third last year, proving he can adapt very well to Bay Hill. With a couple of good putting days, he could be in contention for the win.
While not an early favorite, Sam Burns is one of those players to watch. He has an extraordinary putt (1.68 putts per GIR, among the best on tour) and good fairway finding (62%). His consistency is an issue, but if he can put together four solid rounds, he could be the surprise of the week.
Canadian Nick Taylor has started 2025 exceptionally well, winning the Sony Open in Hawaii and finishing ninth at the Genesis Invitational. He currently ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach and 15th in Strokes Gained: Total. His recent form and a 12th-place finish at Bay Hill in 2024 make him an interesting outsider.
Bay Hill does not give discounts, does not give anything away: every shot is a challenge, every hole a test of mental resistance. Here, power is not enough, you need vision of the game, clarity in critical moments and the ability to deal with pressure.
Tennis World USA