First Ball Forehand

Another incredible tournament to further support Novak’s case for GOAT. Congratulations Novak!! With this title also comes a men’s record 23rd Grand Slam passing Rafael Nadal, the oldest man to win a major (passing Nadal again), a record career grand slam 3x, and a return to #1. What else can you say? Added to his other men’s records of the most weeks at #1, the most ATP 1000 titles, and a winning record against both of his arch rivals, is there really a discussion on the men’s GOAT left? Djokovic is the kryptonite to both Federer and Nadal. His unmatched return of serve neutralizes Federer’s pinpoint serve and first ball forehand quick points. His tenacious baseline game taking the ball on the rise, incredible movement, and mental toughness neutralizes Nadal’s topspin and allows him to gut out the long rallies. He’s perfectly built his game to thwart and defuse his opponents like no other. While others will focus today on another fantastic performance and the unbelievable list of accomplishments, I’ll take a different direction. How much longer can he do it? Who can challenge him?

How much longer?

If today is any indication, he might honestly have 5 more years. His fitness is pristine. His mental toughness and ability to grind out points is still intact. His abiity to hit on the rise uses his opponent’s pace, so he doesn’t need to hit a big generating on his own as much. His return looks as good as ever. If you look at Nadal, Federer, and I’ll even add in Murray and Wawrinka, it wasn’t diminished ability that stopped them from being at the top, it was injuries. If Novak stays healthy, why not 5 more years? I think he can. Sorry, rest of the field, you better work hard to catch up.

Who can challenge him?

I’ve got 4 players to watch. Each could be the one. Will they? We’ll see.

1. Daniil Medvedev – Why? His mental toughness and ability to create a brick wall on hard court is impressive. He’s the only player I’ve seen make Novak change the way he plays. He cannot penetrate the wall. He has to find other ways to win points. He can do that. Has done it. But, I could see this one being a challenge the next few years. Although he took strides on clay this year, I don’t see that seeing the area of concern. Hard court is Medvedev’s game. I could see him gaining ground on grass as well with the lower bounce and his flat strokes.
2. Holger Rune – Why? He’s so good so young. He’s well-rounded. He’s beaten Djokovic already. He has such a high ceiling. And….most important…he has IT! He’s got the swagger. He’s got the confidence. He’s taking the tennis world over. He believes it.
3. Casper Ruud – Why? Ok, some might not agree on this one. Some might say I’m giving him too much credit. He hasn’t won higher than a 250 to date. This is definitely my stretch pick, but let’s break it down. He’s 24. He’s made 3 major finals in the past 13 months (2 French, 1 US Open). He gained ground this past year from his loss to Nadal. His backhand is much improved, so is his serve. He’s got an amazing forehand. He’s still got room to grow on his volleys and his slice backhand. If you look at what he did today, in many ways, he was right there. He had the first set. Not just automatically because he was up a break, but because he lost it on just a few easy, critical misses. He played some incredible points and won a number of those battles. In between those incredible points, you can’t miss easy shots and give opportunities to Djokovie. He won’t in the future. He showed he has the firepower to hold his own. He’s smart. He got a taste of how close he is. I think he could be a surprise.
4. Carlos Alcarez – Why? This one you knew was coming. I just tried poorly to build some drama by waiting until the end. Carlos has it all. He can serve big, hit big groundstrokes, volley, and that drop shot is incredible. Folks have been hitting dropshots forever, but he’s ushered in a change. Others are seeing how well it works for him to blast a forehand, then follow with a drop shot. It’s a lethal way to end points. How many players his age have changed the way others play? Carlos has already proved he can win a major and already proved he can get to #1, granted folks would argue that Djokovic was limited due to covid travel restrictions. Fair enough. I think the first two sets of his semi-final with Djokovic is a taste of what’s coming. His team will figure out the cramping. Carlos is a force. Djokovic will be challenged to stay ahead of him for much longer.

There you have it. That’s my crystal ball view. Congrats once again to Novak! What do you think?