Format: Best of Five
Background: Debate whether Sabalenka overtakes Swiatek to be # 1 within the next 12 months.
Set 1: Sabalenka has the firepower to push Swiatek around. She doesn’t let her dictate and that causes Swiatek to play defense more than she likes. Even on clay recently in Madrid, pushed her around. It’s not that Swiatek doesn’t like to hit hard. She’s a power baseliner in her own right. She just needs more time on her forehand and the flat nature of Sabalenka’s shot doesn’t give her that time – Set 1 winner Sabalenka
Set 2: Sabalenka is downright intimidating and that also gives Swiatek trouble. She’s fearless and hits bigger when it matters. Sabalenka plays like she’s running right through you. It’s not Swiatek’s personality to match up against that – Set 2 Sabalenka
Set 3: Sets 1 and 2 a bit overblown? Swiatek is a 3 time major champion – 2 on clay and 1 on hardcourt. She had a 37 match win streak. At times, she absolutely destroys her opponent. – Set 3 Swiatek keeps #1
Set 4: Sabalenka is on a run, but still capable of swings and inconsistency (Italy loss to Kenin? – and not the Kenin of 3 years ago). She looks to have gotten past her “yips”, but they can return. She had a 7 doubles to overcome against Rybakina. She’s not consistend enough to overcome Swiatek in a year – Set 4 Swiatek keeps #1
Set 5: Swiatek is just getting better. She’s 21 with 3 majors! Even if Sabelenka keeps figuring out, how much better will Swiatek get? Swiatek went from clay expert to hardcourt champion seemingly overnight. She caught up to the speed and push through of the courts. She’ll keep figuring it out. Sabalenka is already near redlining. Although Pegula has continued to improve until 29, she found her game later. I don’t think Sabalenka has that much more to go. Set 5 Swiatek keeps #1
Winner: Swiatek keeps #1 – Tough match, but I’ll take Iga
X-factor – What about Rybakina? – same power game, gives Swiatek trouble and only 23. Maybe a better temperament than both. Expect a future debate!
What do you think?