Defending champion Iga Swiatek faces a pivotal moment at this year’s Mutua Madrid Open. For the first time since March 2022, she risks falling below the No. 2 ranking if she falls short of a deep run at the WTA 1000 event in Spain. While winning the title would guarantee she stays at No. 2, anything less could open the door for Jessica Pegula or Coco Gauff to overtake her.
Last year, Swiatek delivered a thrilling performance in the Madrid final, saving three match points to defeat Aryna Sabalenka 7-5 4-6 7-6(7). It was a moment of sweet revenge after losing to Sabalenka in the 2023 final. Sabalenka first overtook Swiatek for the No. 1 ranking in September 2023, and although Swiatek briefly reclaimed it, she now finds herself trailing again — and at risk of sliding even further down the rankings.
Currently ranked No. 2, Swiatek sits more than 3,000 points behind top-ranked Sabalenka. The pressure is mounting from behind: Jessica Pegula trails Swiatek by 1,175 points, while Coco Gauff is 1,310 points back. The Madrid champion earns 1000 points and takes home €985,030.
Swiatek has not been ranked outside the Top 2 since the 2022 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, where she was world No. 4. That streak could end depending on her Madrid performance and the results of Pegula and Gauff.
Here’s how the scenarios break down:
- If Swiatek loses in the Round of 32 or Round of 16, Pegula can pass her by reaching the semifinals, and Gauff can pass her by reaching the final.
- If Swiatek loses in the quarterfinals, Pegula can pass her by making the final, and Gauff would also need to reach the final to move ahead.
- If Swiatek loses in the semifinals, Pegula would need to reach the final to pass her, and Gauff would need to win the title.
- If Swiatek reaches the final, Pegula could only overtake her by winning the title, and Gauff would already be out of contention.
- If Swiatek wins the Madrid title, she will safely retain her No. 2 ranking.
An additional layer of drama: if Pegula and Gauff meet in the final, the winner would climb to No. 2. For Pegula, it would mark her career debut in the Top 2. Gauff, meanwhile, last held the No. 2 ranking on August 12, 2024.
Swiatek opened her Madrid campaign with a gritty comeback win, rallying from a set and twice from a break down to defeat Alexandra Eala of the Philippines in the second round. She avenged her Miami quarterfinal loss to Eala in the process. Next up for Swiatek is a third-round match against Linda Noskova. Notably, Swiatek has yet to reach a final in 2025 — making her Madrid title defense even more crucial.
The next few rounds in Madrid could redefine the top of the WTA rankings. All eyes are on Swiatek as she battles to defend her crown — and her status among the game’s elite. (source: WTA)
Women’s Tennis Blog